What Is the Bitcoin Halving and Why Does It Matter?
Every four years, Bitcoin's new supply is cut in half. Here is how the halving works, what happened after past halvings and what to expect in 2028.
Key takeaways
- The halving cuts the number of new bitcoin miners receive per block by 50% every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years.
- The last halving in April 2024 reduced the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. The next is expected around April 2028, cutting it to 1.5625 BTC.
- Halvings are why Bitcoin's supply will never exceed 21 million coins; more than 95% have already been mined.
- Past halvings were followed by major bull markets, but each rally was smaller in percentage terms, and history may not repeat.
The halving is one of Bitcoin's most important and most discussed features. It is the mechanism that makes Bitcoin scarce, it squeezes miners' income every four years and it has historically marked the start of Bitcoin's famous market cycles. Understanding it helps you separate the solid facts from the hype that surrounds every halving.
What is the Bitcoin halving?
Bitcoin miners who add a new block to the blockchain receive a reward of newly created bitcoin (the block subsidy) plus transaction fees. When Bitcoin launched in 2009, the subsidy was 50 BTC per block. Bitcoin's code specifies that this subsidy is cut in half every 210,000 blocks. Because a block is found about every 10 minutes, 210,000 blocks take roughly four years.
The halving happens automatically at a specific block height. No company, government or developer decides when it occurs, and it cannot be postponed without changing rules that the entire network would have to accept.
Every Bitcoin halving so far
| Halving | Date | Block | Reward after | BTC price at halving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | January 2009 | 0 | 50 BTC | – |
| 1st | November 28, 2012 | 210,000 | 25 BTC | ≈ $12 |
| 2nd | July 9, 2016 | 420,000 | 12.5 BTC | ≈ $650 |
| 3rd | May 11, 2020 | 630,000 | 6.25 BTC | ≈ $8,600 |
| 4th | April 20, 2024 (UTC) | 840,000 | 3.125 BTC | ≈ $64,000 |
| 5th | Expected around April 2028 | 1,050,000 | 1.5625 BTC | ? |
| 6th | Expected around 2032 | 1,260,000 | 0.78125 BTC | ? |
Prices are rounded. Future dates are estimates: because blocks do not arrive exactly every 10 minutes, the projected date shifts over time.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The fifth halving will occur at block 1,050,000. At the start of October 2026, roughly 80,000 blocks remained, which at about 144 blocks per day points to spring 2028, most likely in April. Live countdowns, such as those on blockchain explorers, update the estimate continuously based on recent block times.
How the halving shapes Bitcoin's supply
The halving is the reason Bitcoin's total supply converges on 21 million coins. Each halving cuts the pace of new issuance in half:
- Before April 2024: about 900 new BTC per day.
- Since April 2024: about 450 new BTC per day, or roughly 164,000 per year, which is an annual supply growth of about 0.8%.
- After the 2028 halving: about 225 new BTC per day, or about 0.4% supply growth per year.
For comparison, the global supply of gold grows by roughly 1.5% to 2% per year. The 20 millionth bitcoin was mined in March 2026, so more than 95% of all bitcoin that will ever exist is already in circulation. The rest will trickle out over more than a century; after 33 halvings, around the year 2140, the subsidy reaches zero.
Why the halving matters for miners
For miners, a halving means their main source of income drops by half overnight, while their costs for electricity and hardware stay the same. Less efficient miners must upgrade their equipment, find cheaper energy, rely more on transaction fees or shut down. Learn more in How does Bitcoin mining work?.
Over the long run, halvings raise an important question: as the subsidy shrinks toward zero, will transaction fees be high enough to pay for the computing power that secures the network? Supporters expect fees to grow with adoption; skeptics see a potential weakness in Bitcoin's long-term security model.
Bitcoin's price after past halvings
Each halving so far was followed by a bull market that peaked roughly 12 to 18 months later, and then by a deep bear market:
| Halving | Next cycle peak | Peak price | Peak vs. halving price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2012 | December 2013 (≈ 12 months later) | ≈ $1,150 | ≈ 95x |
| July 2016 | December 2017 (≈ 17 months later) | ≈ $19,700 | ≈ 30x |
| May 2020 | November 2021 (≈ 18 months later) | ≈ $69,000 | ≈ 8x |
| April 2024 | October 2025 (≈ 18 months later) | $126,198 | ≈ 2x |
Two patterns stand out. The timing has been remarkably consistent, but the size of each rally has shrunk dramatically, from about 95-fold to about 2-fold. The most recent cycle was also different in another way: Bitcoin set a new all-time high in March 2024, a month before the halving, driven by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. That had never happened before.
Does the halving really drive the price?
The argument for: if demand stays the same while new supply falls, the price should rise. Miners, who typically sell part of their coins to cover costs, have fewer coins to sell after each halving.
The arguments against are increasingly strong:
- The halving is known years in advance. In efficient markets, a predictable event should already be reflected in prices.
- New supply is now tiny compared with demand. At about $83,600 per bitcoin, 450 new coins per day are worth roughly $38 million. US spot Bitcoin ETFs alone have seen net flows of around $1 billion on a single day. Demand from ETFs, companies and investors, plus decisions by existing holders, matters far more than mining supply.
- Few data points. Four halvings are not enough to prove a causal relationship. The cycles also coincided with major monetary policy shifts, such as low interest rates in 2020 and 2021.
A reasonable view is that the halving matters for Bitcoin's long-term scarcity and for miners' economics, while short- and medium-term prices are driven mainly by demand, liquidity and sentiment. For more on what is moving the market now, read Bitcoin price today.
What could the 2028 halving bring?
- For supply: new issuance falls to about 225 BTC per day, making Bitcoin's annual supply growth lower than that of gold.
- For miners: another squeeze on revenue, likely accelerating consolidation and the shift of some mining capacity to other uses, such as AI computing.
- For the price: nobody knows. If the four-year pattern held, the bear market of 2026 would be followed by recovery in 2027 and strength after the 2028 halving. But with ETFs, institutions and macroeconomic policy now dominating, the cycle could look very different. See our Bitcoin price prediction for 2027 for the scenarios.
How investors can think about the halving
- Do not buy just because "a halving is coming". The event is public knowledge and offers no guaranteed profit.
- Expect volatility around the event, in both directions.
- Focus on your time horizon and position size rather than on trying to time a cycle. Our guide Is Bitcoin a good investment? helps you decide.
Frequently asked questions
How often does the Bitcoin halving happen?
Every 210,000 blocks, which works out to roughly every four years.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next halving is expected around April 2028, at block 1,050,000. The exact date depends on how fast blocks are found until then.
What will the block reward be after the next halving?
It will drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block.
How many halvings will there be?
The subsidy keeps halving until it rounds down to zero, which happens after 33 halvings, around the year 2140.
Does the halving affect people who already own bitcoin?
Not directly. Your coins and their quantity do not change. The halving only affects how many new coins miners receive.
